With Nick Saban’s retirement last winter, the most iconic figure in Alabama history, the Crimson Tide’s longstanding position as a preseason favorite has also come to an end. Under Saban, Alabama had consistently been in contention for the national championship, but now they face a new era with Kalen DeBoer at the helm.
Despite DeBoer’s successful leadership of Washington to the title game last season, Alabama is now considered a top-10 team with the fifth-best odds to win the national title at +1500. This marks the longest odds for Alabama to secure the championship trophy since 2008, which was Saban’s second year as head coach.
While DeBoer has proven himself in the Pac-12, the scrutiny and expectations at Alabama are significantly higher than those at Washington. Saban remains involved in the sport as an Alabama adviser and ESPN analyst, but his absence from the sidelines has left oddsmakers and pundits skeptical about Alabama’s prospects, despite the talent present in the 2024 roster.
Oddsmakers have set Alabama’s lowest preseason win total at 9.5 since 2015. The Crimson Tide has won at least 10 regular-season games every year since 2010, with Saban failing to achieve double-digit wins only twice during his 17-year tenure. The implied probability suggests Alabama has a 50% chance of winning 10 games in DeBoer’s inaugural season.
DeBoer managed to retain key players and a considerable portion of Alabama’s roster, which is crucial given the typical roster turnover associated with the transfer portal and the influx of NFL talent in Tuscaloosa. This transition allows DeBoer to reload the roster without undergoing a full post-Saban rebuild.
However, Alabama will also depend on a number of young players stepping into significant roles in 2024. This reliance on freshmen and sophomores presents challenges in today’s landscape of college football, where the average age of starters is rising. Fortunately, Alabama boasts the No. 1 and No. 2 recruiting classes for 2023 and 2024, respectively, ensuring they won’t face a talent deficit.
Returning quarterback Jalen Milroe had a challenging start to the 2023 season but ultimately led Alabama to the College Football Playoff. Although he will not share the field with many of last year’s starters, Alabama’s extensive pool of talent should allow for a smooth transition.
Alabama’s schedule remains daunting in the now-expanded SEC. The season begins with nonconference games against Western Kentucky and South Florida before a challenging matchup at Wisconsin. The conference schedule includes road games against SEC powerhouses LSU and Tennessee, along with a home game against Georgia, the co-favorite to win the national championship. Last season, Alabama defeated Georgia in the SEC championship game, preventing the Bulldogs from completing a perfect season and pursuing a three-peat. The two teams have not faced each other in the regular season since 2020.
Additionally, Alabama will play Oklahoma on the road in the Sooners’ first SEC season and will conclude their season with a home rivalry game against Auburn. The Tide currently sit at +700 to win the SEC, trailing behind Georgia and Texas.
The combination of a new head coach, a young but talented roster, and a challenging schedule in the competitive SEC has raised questions about Alabama’s upcoming season. With longer championship odds and a lower win total than in previous years, Alabama fans may need to adjust their expectations as the Crimson Tide prepare to begin fall camp on Wednesday.
